Evangelical Christian Voters Assess Republican Field Ahead of Iowa Caucuses
Evangelical Christian voters will have one of their last opportunities before the Iowa caucuses in January to take a look at the shrinking Republican field Friday in Des Moines. Former President Donald Trump, who has had a strong hold on the White evangelical base since the 2016 general election, is expected to skip the event.
Hosted by influential evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats' organization, "The FAMiLY Leader," the Thanksgiving Family forum will feature Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley. This gathering comes after the recent exits of Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and former Vice President Mike Pence from the primary race.
While Trump remains the front runner for the GOP nomination, his feud with Vander Plaats, stemming from the party's underperformance in the 2022 midterms, has led to his absence from the event hosted by Vander Plaats for the second time.
Vander Plaats Could Soon Endorse DeSantis
According to sources on a Monday call with fundraisers, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is expecting an endorsement from influential faith leader Vander Plaats within a week of their upcoming roundtable. However, the DeSantis campaign denies that the governor made this claim.
In an interview with CBS News, Vander Plaats expressed that the decision on his endorsement is still pending. He mentioned that he is looking forward to the roundtable event on Friday, which he will moderate, to help him make a final decision. Vander Plaats stated that he will endorse a candidate between the roundtable and Christmas.
Vander Plaats explained that he is seeking a candidate with a "consistency of convictions and a vision of principled leadership." He also emphasized the importance of choosing a candidate who can win not only the Iowa caucuses, but also secure the nomination and succeed in the general election. Vander Plaats believes that former President Donald Trump has reached a "high-water mark" in the Des Moines Register poll, which showed him at 43%. He predicts that there will be a shift in support away from Trump as the field narrows.
"That may not be by December 1, but I guarantee you by January 15 there'll be movement," Vander Plaats added.
Vander Plaats has met several times with the Florida governor. And recently, DeSantis was the only candidate to show support for Vander Plaats' event after the Republican National Committee (RNC) threatened to block any candidates who attend it from the debate stage, citing a rule against non-RNC sanctioned debates. Vander Plaats and the RNC came to an agreement over the event last Saturday.
"Iowa's ground zero for a lot of reasons. I think if you beat Trump here, it's game on for the nomination. But there is an argument to coalesce around the winner of the Iowa caucuses immediately," Vander Plaats added. "That's where unity has to happen, you need to get this one-on-one with Trump going into New Hampshire, South Carolina or the other states."
The evangelical Christian voting bloc
White evangelical voters have historically made up a sizable block of Iowa's GOP electorate. In an August Des Moines Register/NBC/Mediacom poll, 55% of respondents described themselves as "devoutly religious."
In that same poll, 42% of respondents listed Trump as their first choice, with DeSantis at second. An October Des Moines Register poll showed Trump's support at 43% and DeSantis tied with Haley at 16%.
In 2016, Trump won the support of White evangelicals in 19 of the 28 states where CBS News primary exit polls were conducted. That support carried into his 2020 re-election bid, where 76% of White evangelical Christians supported Trump, according to Washington Post exit polls.
But some faith leaders say the electorate of evangelical Christians is not as settled on Trump as polls indicate.
A consensus has yet to be reached among evangelical Christians regarding a preferred candidate for the upcoming election, according to Iowa state Representative Jon Dunwell. Dunwell, who is also a pastor in Monroe, Iowa, is throwing his support behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. In previous Iowa GOP caucuses, candidates such as Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz garnered significant support from evangelical voters. However, the presence of former President Donald Trump in this election could potentially divide the evangelical base among the non-Trump candidates. Additionally, the rise of Nikki Haley in the polls adds another layer of complexity to the situation, potentially affecting the support for both Trump and DeSantis. According to David Kochel, a longtime Iowa GOP strategist, Haley and DeSantis have different support bases in the state. Haley's campaign is similar to Marco Rubio's in 2016, targeting traditional, establishment Republicans, while DeSantis is following a strategy similar to Cruz's, appealing to evangelical voters and visiting all 99 counties in the state.
Haley's campaign is not taking the evangelical vote for granted. They argue that her foreign policy record resonates with these voters and appreciate her support for Israel and standing up to anti-Israel dictators at the United Nations. As a result, Haley is rising in the polls and is now second in Iowa.
On the other hand, DeSantis' team points out that both Pence and Scott tried to attract evangelical support by surging resources in Iowa, but were unsuccessful. They believe that DeSantis is making headway with those voters.
The DeSantis campaign also believes that both Trump and Haley have vulnerabilities with the Faith electorate on the issue of abortion. Trump has been criticized for calling Florida's six-week ban on abortion a terrible thing, while Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds passed a similar bill that is currently stalled in the courts.
According to communications director Andrew Romeo, "Both Nikki Haley and Donald Trump's records and visions for America are better suited for Gavin Newsom's California than today's Hawkeye State. In contrast, Ron DeSantis shares the values of faith, family, and freedom of hardworking Iowans."
Trump has been running Iowa radio spots that mention his record on abortion and his nomination of conservative Supreme Court justices who could potentially overturn Roe v. Wade.
DeSantis and Trump Vie for Evangelical Support in Iowa
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been actively courting Iowa's evangelical community for several months. In September, he announced the formation of a "Faith, Family and Freedom" coalition consisting of over 55 pastors and faith leaders from Iowa.
However, DeSantis was overshadowed by former President Donald Trump in late October. Trump's campaign released a list of more than 100 faith leaders in Iowa who are supporting him.
Jeremy Higgins, a lead pastor at the Calvary Community Church in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, is one of the faith leaders backing DeSantis. He emphasized the appreciation that people of faith have for Trump's actions as president and their desire for a deeper connection to their roots.
The Impact of Vander Plaats' Endorsement
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who is supporting Trump, downplayed the potential impact of an endorsement from influential Iowa conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats in the race.
Huckabee acknowledged that Vander Plaats' endorsement and work for his own presidential campaign in 2008 could bring attention to DeSantis among voters who haven't closely examined his candidacy. However, he believes it will not be a decisive factor in the race, stating that it won't significantly affect Trump's standing or boost DeSantis' support by a large margin.
A September memo from pollsters suggested that if Vander Plaats endorses DeSantis, it would have "no significant impact on the Presidential ballot."
"There was no statistically significant change to the ballot other than Undecideds increasing slightly from 7% to 13%" wrote pollsters Tony Fabrizio, David Lee and Travis Tunis.
Faith leaders supporting DeSantis disagree. While they don't think a Vander Plaats endorsement would be as influential as the governor's endorsement, they predicted the two combined would be a huge boost for DeSantis.
"He has resources and a network all over the state that can be deployed and push thousands of voters within a matter of days," Mark Doland, a pastor, said of Vander Plaats.
Mark Dowell, an undecided voter, acknowledged that while Vander Plaats' endorsement is "very important" for western Iowa, "it'll make little" difference for who he votes for.
"Nobody expects Donald Trump to be found in the front row of a church every Sunday"
Huckabee called the Iowa caucuses "Trump's to lose at this point." He voiced confidence that Trump's record of recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital and the Abraham Accords will help him keep that base.
According to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, the support of evangelical voters for political candidates is not solely based on religious affiliation. Huckabee stated that the key factor for these voters is whether the candidates support smaller government and provide leadership that allows them to practice their faith freely.
Huckabee compared the evangelical voters who helped him win the caucuses in 2008 to those who have supported Donald Trump since 2016. He emphasized that it is not necessary for a candidate to be seen in church every Sunday, but rather if they will protect the rights and values of the evangelical community.
