Unfortunate airline passengers and a cat desperately holding onto a car door handle in floodwaters emerged as standout moments this week in Dubai, a city known for its dry climate, as it experienced unprecedented levels of rainfall. Speculation has been rife that the downpour was a result of cloud seeding, a method used to enhance precipitation, which is widely practiced in the United Arab Emirates.
But is cloud seeding truly responsible for this deluge?
Daniel Swain, a climate expert from the University of California, Los Angeles, emphasized the importance of delving into the science behind the "record-breaking extreme rainfall" to determine the true cause of the event and the role of cloud seeding.
"There seems to be a disparity in the ongoing online discussions between the human activities that likely played a part (such as greenhouse warming) and the focus on cloud seeding, and what implications this has for our understanding of our capacity to influence weather patterns on various scales," he explained in a statement via email.
Understanding the Concept of Cloud Seeding
Following the recent heavy rainfall in Dubai, many have raised questions about the role of cloud seeding in causing this weather phenomenon. So, what exactly is cloud seeding and how does it function?
Cloud seeding is a method employed to enhance precipitation. As explained by the Desert Research Institute, this process involves introducing tiny particles known as nuclei into the atmosphere, which then adhere to clouds.
"These nuclei serve as a foundation for the formation of snowflakes. Following the cloud seeding process, the newly created snowflakes rapidly develop and descend from the clouds to the Earth's surface, thereby boosting snowpack and streamflow," the institute elaborates.
In the Middle East, the cloud seeding program is designed to augment rainfall rather than snowfall.
Scientists typically execute cloud seeding through two primary approaches – utilizing ground-based generators or dispersing the nuclei via aircraft.
Unraveling the Mystery Behind the Rainfall in Dubai
Speculations arose regarding whether the rain in Dubai was a result of cloud seeding. However, meteorologist Swain dispelled this notion by stating, "Did cloud seeding play a role? Likely no. But how about climate change? Likely yes!"
The world is continuing to see month after month of record-breaking heat and 2023 was the hottest year globally ever recorded. Scientists have found that warmer temperatures increase evaporation, resulting in more frequent and intense storms, such as the one that occurred in Dubai. Those conditions also fuel other extreme weather events, including droughts, putting opposing forces at intense odds that will likely strain communities without adequate adaptation.
Andrew Kruczkiewicz, senior researcher at Columbia Climate School, told CBS News he doesn't believe there's any current evidence at this time that cloud seeding pushed the downpour over the edge.
"This event was forecast fairly well days in advance and I think it's unlikely that a cloud seeding operation would move forward given the well-forecast intense rainfall," he said.
The nation's National Emergency Crisis and Management Authority issued weather warnings on Monday before the storm's arrival, urging people to comply with local instructions from authorities and asking them to stay at home and only leave in the case of an emergency.
Meteorologist Ryan Maue, former chief scientist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, gave the Associated Press a more definitive answer: "It's most certainly not cloud seeding."
"If that occurred with cloud seeding, they'd have water all the time," he said. "...when it comes to controlling individual rain storms, we are not anywhere close to that. And if we were capable of doing that, I think we would be capable of solving many more difficult problems than creating a rain shower over Dubai."
The Impact of Unprecedented Flooding in Dubai
Reflecting on the deluge, it raises important questions about the resilience measures integrated into urban planning standard operating procedures. The risk of flash flooding exists almost everywhere on Earth, yet it often takes a back seat in decision-making processes related to infrastructure, resilience, and urban development.
Significance of the Flooding in Dubai
Within a span of 24 hours, Dubai experienced over 5.59 inches of rainfall. While this figure may not seem substantial, it surpasses the city's average annual rainfall, with other parts of the UAE receiving even higher amounts.
Described as a "historic weather event" by the state-run WAM news agency, the rainfall surpassed any documented data since records began in 1949.
Given Dubai's typically arid climate, the unexpected downpour caught the city off guard. The drainage systems proved inadequate to handle the volume of water, leading to disruptions such as the temporary suspension of operations at Dubai International Airport. Passengers faced significant delays, with some waiting over 12 hours before being able to proceed with their travel plans. Footage from the airport depicted planes navigating through floodwaters, painting a surreal picture of the usually bustling hub.
"The amount of rainfall experienced in just a few hours was equivalent to over a year's worth," Kruczkiewicz explained to CBS News. "What's crucial to understand is that in semi-arid regions like this, the soil is not equipped to handle water filtration as efficiently as in other areas. Therefore, even a small amount of rainfall in a short period of time can lead to significant issues."
Can cloud seeding make a difference?
As per the Desert Research Institute, the effectiveness of cloud seeding varies based on the specific project it is employed in. Referencing multiple studies, the institute noted that cloud seeding has contributed to a minimum 10% increase in overall snowpack in certain areas annually. In one case, a five-year initiative in New South Wales, Australia, led to a 14% rise in snowfall.
The National Center of Meteorology in the UAE initiated the Research Program for Rain Enhancement Science to progress the technology, emphasizing that for arid regions globally, cloud seeding could serve as a practical and cost-effective supplement to existing water resources. Numerous regions, not just in the Middle East, are grappling with water scarcity challenges, including Colombia, Mexico, and Hawaii.
