Anti-abortion groups are firing off a warning shot for 2024: We're not going anywhere.
Their leaders say they're undeterred by recent election setbacks and plan to plow ahead on what they've done for years, including working through state legislatures, federal agencies, and federal courts to outlaw abortion. And at least one prominent anti-abortion group is calling on conservative states to make it harder for voters to enact ballot measures, a tactic Republican lawmakers attempted in Ohio before voters there enshrined the right to abortion in the state's constitution.
"For us, this is a civil rights battle. We have innocent human beings whose lives are being destroyed," said Carol Tobias, president of the National Right to Life Committee, one of the country's largest anti-abortion groups. "And we're going to keep fighting because we think those are human beings who deserve protection."
The movement is no stranger to the long game, working over decades to get the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision establishing a constitutional right to abortion that the high court nullified last year.
Republican lawmakers and anti-abortion candidates are facing challenges in finding a unified message ahead of the 2024 elections. The defeat of an abortion ban proposal in Ohio and the loss of control of the state legislature to Democrats in Virginia have added to their struggles. Democrats are expected to continue capitalizing on the anger over the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization in 2022.
In response, abortion rights supporters have achieved victories in seven states. In Ohio, a state that Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, 57% of voters supported a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights. Voters in 11 more states may see abortion-related initiatives on their ballots next year, including in Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Dakota.
Jim Daly, president of Focus on the Family, stated that the Ohio vote "makes clear it's essential that the critical work of the pro-life movement must carry on with renewed energy and enthusiasm" following the Nov. 7 election results.
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America also emphasized the need for the Republican Party to clarify its stance on abortion, stating that the GOP's previous strategy of ignoring the issue and hoping it would go away did not work.
As the abortion debate continues, there is disagreement among abortion opponents regarding the best tactics, according to Mary Ziegler, a law professor at the University of California-Davis and an abortion debate historian.
Anti-Abortion Groups Shift Focus to State Legislatures and Courts
Several anti-abortion groups are changing their strategies and shifting their focus away from voters. Instead, they are turning their attention to state legislatures and federal courts to push for stricter abortion laws. This shift comes as some organizations believe that winning over voters is becoming increasingly difficult, and that they can achieve more lasting change through legal avenues.
According to experts, there is a divide within the anti-abortion movement regarding the importance of voters. Some groups prioritize winning over voters by improving their messaging and being more flexible in their positions. Others believe that the movement's primary goal is to advance fetal rights, rather than winning elections.
Currently, 14 states, mostly in the South and Midwest, have enacted near-total abortion bans, while seven additional states have implemented bans on abortions between six and 18 weeks of gestation. Anti-abortion groups are also employing strategies to restrict access to prescription medicines used for most abortions in the U.S.
One of the key legal battles in this movement is a lawsuit that threatens access to mifepristone, one of the pills used for medication abortion. The case is currently making its way through the federal courts. Additionally, some anti-abortion groups are seeking to revive the enforcement of the Comstock Act, a 19th-century law that prohibits the mailing of "obscene" materials and information, as a means to ban the mailing of abortion pills nationwide.
Experts warn that these legal strategies could undermine the victories that the anti-abortion movement has achieved at the polls, potentially canceling out progress that voters may not be aware of.
Anti-Abortion Groups Debate Strategy
Anti-abortion groups have differing opinions on the best strategy to pursue. While SBA Pro-Life America is advocating for a national 15-week abortion ban, others argue that it is time to abandon incremental approaches. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 93% of abortions in 2020 occurred at 13 weeks or earlier.
"I would call it a capitulation," said Kristan Hawkins, president of Students for Life of America, referring to the 15-week ban. Hawkins and SFLA support federal legislation that would ban abortion at six weeks or earlier, a time when many women may not even realize they are pregnant. She emphasized the importance of passing and enforcing laws to achieve victories, as anti-abortion groups have done for decades.
Hawkins stated, "We are engaged in a marathon, not a sprint. We must continue moving forward and doing what we do best."
The National Right to Life Committee, represented by Tobias, plans to focus on lobbying state legislatures and advocating for specific circumstances under which abortion should be allowed, such as cases involving rape or incest. They are not currently calling for a national abortion ban in Congress due to the lack of necessary votes to overcome a filibuster.
Tobias expressed, "We need to start addressing the reasons why women choose to have abortions and find ways to provide support or alternatives."
Abortion Opponents Rethink Ballot Measures as Strategy
Tobias and others also expressed skepticism about pursuing abortion-related ballot measures of their own. According to Hawkins, "It's very clear ballot referendums are a 'get-rich-quick scheme' for the consultant class."
Instead, abortion opponents are now focusing on making it more difficult for voters to enact such measures. Americans United for Life recently released a statement on November 7, suggesting that states where abortion is heavily restricted and ballot measures are possible, such as Florida, Mississippi, and Oklahoma, should require legislative referrals for all future amendments. You can read the full statement here.
However, abortion rights supporters argue that it won't be easy for opponents to limit access to abortion. Gabriel Mann, spokesperson for Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights, the ballot committee behind the state constitutional amendment campaign, stated, "People are never going to accept this idea of having fewer rights. They've had five decades since Roe to convince the American people that somehow everyone would be better off sacrificing their own reproductive rights, and they failed."
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