St. Charles, Missouri — Lucas Kunce, a Democrat, is making a bold move to challenge Republican Senator Josh Hawley by focusing on reproductive care restrictions as a key issue in the upcoming November election.
Through a recent ad campaign, Kunce directly accuses Hawley of endangering reproductive care, specifically mentioning in vitro fertilization. A Missouri mother named Jessica is featured in the ad, tearfully sharing her emotional journey of struggling to conceive for years.
"Now there are efforts to ban IVF, and Josh Hawley got them started," Jessica states in the ad. "I want Josh Hawley to look me in the eye and tell me that I can't have the child that I deserve."
Despite IVF being legal in Missouri and Hawley's stance in support of limited access to abortion as a "pro-life" Republican, Democrats in various key races nationwide are painting their Republican opponents as risks to women's health following significant limitations on reproductive rights post the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. These restrictions include near-total state abortion bans, attempts to limit medication abortion, and a court ruling that impacted IVF in Alabama.
On top of the messaging campaigns, Democrats hope ballot measures to guarantee abortion rights in as many as 13 states — including Missouri, Arizona, and Florida — will help boost turnout in their favor.
The issue puts the GOP on the defensive, said J. Miles Coleman, an election analyst at the University of Virginia.
"I don't really think Republicans have found a great way to respond to it yet," he said.
Abortion is such a salient issue in Arizona, for example, that election analysts say a U.S. House seat occupied by Republican Juan Ciscomani is now a toss-up.
Kunce, a Marine veteran and antitrust advocate, said he likes his odds.
"I just don't think we're gonna lose," he told KFF Health News. "Missourians want freedom and the ability to control their own lives."
Hawley's campaign declined to comment. He has backed a federal ban on abortion after 15 weeks and has said he supports exceptions for rape and incest and to protect the lives of pregnant women. Missouri's state ban is near total, with no exceptions for rape or incest.
"Josh Hawley's devotion to this cause runs deep. It's a family affair," Kunce mentioned, referencing Erin Morrow Hawley, the senator's wife and a lawyer who recently presented arguments before the Supreme Court in March on behalf of activists advocating for restrictions on the abortion pill mifepristone.
Since the overturn of Roe in 2022, state abortion rights initiatives have succeeded in every location where they've been on the ballot, even in traditionally Republican states like Kentucky and Ohio.
There are expectations for an abortion rights ballot proposal in Montana, a state where a challenge to Democratic Senator Jon Tester by a Republican contender could determine Senate control.
On a Saturday in late April, along the historic Main Street in St. Charles, Missouri, individuals carrying makeshift clipboards made from old election signs encouraged passersby to sign a petition supporting the initiative to include abortion rights in Missouri's state constitution. Nearby, diners enjoyed lunch on a patio shaded by trees in this upscale St. Louis suburb.
Missouri was the initial state to prohibit abortion post-Roe; currently, it's only permitted in "medical emergency" situations. The proposed measure aims to establish the right to abortion in the state constitution.
Larry Bax, aged 65, residing in St. Charles County, shared that while he typically supports Republican candidates, he and his wife, Debbie Bax, aged 66, both signed the petition for the ballot measure.
"We've never been single-issue voters. Not once," he expressed. "But this is different. This is something we can't ignore."
They won't vote for Hawley this fall, they said, but are unsure if they'll support the Democratic nominee.
Jim Seidel, 64, who lives in Wright City, 50 miles west of St. Louis, also signed the petition. He said he believes Missourians deserve the opportunity to vote on the issue.
"I've been a Republican all my life until just recently," Seidel said. "It's just gone really wacky."
He plans to vote for Kunce in November if he wins the Democratic primary in August, as seems likely. Seidel previously voted for a few Democrats, including Bill Clinton and Claire McCaskill, whom Hawley unseated as senator six years ago.
"Most of the time," he added, Hawley is "strongly in the wrong camp."
Over about two hours in conservative St. Charles, KFF Health News observed only one person actively declining to sign the petition. The woman told the volunteers she and her family opposed abortion rights and quickly walked away. The Catholic Church has discouraged voters from signing. At St. Joseph Parish in a nearby suburb, for example, a sign flashed: "Decline to Sign Reproductive Health Petition!"
The ballot measure organizers turned in more than twice the required number of signatures May 3, though, and now await certification from the secretary of state's office.
Concerns like Larry Bax's extend beyond just abortion and the current ballot measure in Missouri. He is also worried about the possibility of further governmental restrictions on reproductive care, including on procedures like IVF and access to birth control. "How much further can that reach extend?" he pondered.
Kunce is hoping that enough voters share the same concerns as Bax and Seidel, leading to a potential upset similar to the one in 2012 for the same seat, which was also centered around abortion. In that year, McCaskill emerged victorious over Republican Todd Akin, largely due to his controversial statement regarding abortion: "If it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down."
KFF Health News, formerly known as Kaiser Health News (KHN), is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF — the independent source for health policy research, polling, and journalism.
