The pace of babies born each year in the U.S. has slowed to a new record low, according to an analysis of 2023 birth certificate data published Thursday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Last year's slowdown marks an official end to the uptick in new babies that began during the COVID-19 pandemic. At least 3,591,328 babies were born in the U.S. in 2023, down 2% from the 3,667,758 born in 2022.
There were already signs in the year before that a pandemic surge in births was coming to an end. There were slightly fewer babies born in 2022 compared to 2021, though agency officials said at the time that this drop was not large enough to be considered a statistically significant decline.
New CDC Report Shows Decline in Total Fertility Rate
Thursday's latest report by CDC's National Center for Health Statistics reveals a concerning trend in the total fertility rate in the United States. The data, collected from birth certificates by the agency, indicates a significant decrease in the number of births per 1,000 women.
According to the report released earlier this year, the total fertility rate for the previous year stood at 1,616.5 births per 1,000 women. This number signifies the average number of births women are expected to have over their lifetimes if current rates persist.
If the United States does not reach a rate of 2,100 births per 1,000 women, equivalent to an average of 2.1 children per woman, the total population could decline unless there are other sources of population growth. Recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau attribute population increases to a resurgence in immigration and a decrease in deaths.
Since 1971, the total fertility rate in the U.S. has remained below the replacement level needed to offset the deaths of previous generations.
"Think about that in terms of the woman and her partner. So if you have a total fertility rate of two, you're replacing him and you're replacing her in the population. It has to be 2.1 to compensate for mortality," said Hamilton.
The number of new births in 2023 was flat or declined from 2022 for most groups except Hispanic women, who saw an increase of 1%.
Teen birth rates plateau
Birth rates by age group were also down or unchanged from 2022 to 2023 for virtually all women, young and old. This includes women ages 40 to 44 years old, who had previously seen the pace of new babies born rise for almost every year since 1985.
However, a once plummeting rate of teen births
"It's important to remember that if you look at the years prior to that, 2007 to 2022, the rate for teen births 15 to 19 was declining by 7% on average. And now it's declining by 2 and 3%. So the question is why," said Hamilton.
"We need to look into finding out why it's only declining half of what it has been doing, and it could be a number of factors. There's a lot to be investigated and pieced out."
The decline was smallest among younger teens, ages 15 to 17 years old, whose birth rate was virtually unchanged from 2022.
Recent Surge in Cesarean Deliveries
For the fourth consecutive time, the rate of C-sections has seen a rise, following the onset of the pandemic. This increase comes after a period of deceleration from 2009 to 2019.
The data shows that Cesarean delivery rates have reached their peak among Black mothers, reaching 37% in the previous year. Moreover, rates have slightly increased for Asian, White, and Hispanic women.
Specifically for low-risk births, cesarean deliveries have escalated to 26.6%. Low-risk deliveries are characterized by head-first births of single babies at full term (at least 37 weeks) to first-time mothers.
