Presidential Hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Makes Strides in Ballot Access
Washington — In mid-April, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was on the ballot as an independent presidential candidate in Utah and Michigan, though his campaign says it is working to get him on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Kennedy's backers insist he's not pursuing his White House bid just to hand the election to another candidate. They say he's the real deal and has a shot at winning the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election.
Getting on the ballot in enough states to secure 270 votes — just over half the 538 votes in the Electoral College — is no small feat for a third-party contender. But it's possible.
"I think he has a very good chance of getting onto all 50 ballots," said Bernard Tamas, an associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University who studies third parties. "The short answer is, I can't say definitively that he will, but it looks like he's on track for it."
Kennedy's campaign says it has completed signature gathering in seven other states in addition to Utah and Michigan — Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nebraska and Iowa.
Super PAC Supporting Kennedy Gathers Signatures in Multiple States
The super PAC backing Kennedy, known as American Values 2024, has announced that it has successfully gathered enough signatures in Arizona, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Despite this achievement, the campaign has not yet completed the necessary paperwork and submitted the petitions in these states. It has pointed out that there is still ample time to do so, as most states have deadlines set for July or August.
According to the campaign, they are strategically choosing the timing to submit the petitions in order to avoid potential legal disputes. By holding onto the signatures until the last moment, they hope to minimize any challenges that may arise.
However, Kennedy's campaign has already encountered a hurdle in Nevada. In a previous incident in March, it was revealed that the petition used to gather signatures in the state did not include a vice presidential candidate, potentially requiring the signature collection process to start anew.
Kennedy's Campaign Faces Obstacles in Nevada
Paul Rossi, the ballot access attorney for Kennedy's campaign, expressed frustration over the situation in Nevada. He accused the DNC Goon Squad and officials in the Nevada Secretary of State's office of creating a new requirement for the petition without any legal basis.
Aside from navigating the different ballot access regulations across states and dealing with costly legal battles, Kennedy is also up against opposition from Democratic organizations that are working to undermine third-party campaigns.
Earlier this year, the Democratic National Committee formed a team to challenge third-party and independent presidential candidates. The effort will depend on other groups like Third Way, MoveOn, and a new super PAC, Clear Choice, backed by allies of President Biden.
"Only two candidates have a path to 270 electoral votes — President Biden and Donald Trump," said DNC spokesperson Matt Corridoni. "The stakes are high and we know this is going to be a close election. That's why a vote for any third-party candidate is a vote for Donald Trump."
The Kennedy campaign said it plans to secure ballot access in all 50 states, dismissing suggestions that Kennedy aims to help former President Donald Trump's bid for the presidency by taking votes from Mr. Biden.
"Our campaign is a spoiler. I agree with that. It's a spoiler for President Biden and for President Trump," Kennedy said when he revealed his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, last month.
In some states, the time frame for collecting signatures is brief. Others have provisions for signature thresholds to be reached in every county of a state. More than half the states require independent candidates to have a running mate.
Collecting enough signatures isn't difficult in every state. Many only require 1,000 to 5,000 signatures, Tamas said. Louisiana requires no signatures and a $500 fee. Other states have higher thresholds. Texas requires over 113,000 signatures, and Florida requires more than 145,000.
And those are the number of valid signatures required. Any third-party candidate needs to overshoot that target in order to make sure they have enough in case some of the signatures are found to be invalid.
In states like Hawaii, where the Kennedy campaign claims to have gathered enough signatures, it's more convenient to run under a party affiliation rather than as an independent candidate. Kennedy supporters are also collecting signatures in California, Mississippi, North Carolina and Delaware to establish the "We The People" party, which can then nominate Kennedy as its presidential candidate.
The Kennedy campaign says it's aiming to collect 60% over the signature threshold in each state.
"We have the field teams, volunteers, legal teams, paid circulators, supporters, and strategists ready to get the job done," said campaign press secretary Stefanie Spear. "We are exceeding all our benchmarks and will be announcing new states each week."
But Tamas says Kennedy should be aiming higher — closer to double the required number of signatures.
"I'm surprised they're saying it's as low as 60, you just can't take any chances," Tamas said.
Collecting signatures is expensive. Kennedy's super PAC estimates that it will cost around $40 to $50 million just to collect all the necessary signatures, although Tamas noted RFK Jr.'s running mate, Shanahan, the billionaire ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin, has the financial resources.
As signatures are gathered, the real battle begins. The Democratic Party is gearing up to challenge Kennedy's signatures, setting the stage for a fierce legal fight.
"The real challenge lies in the legal battle that follows, not just in collecting the signatures," Tamas explained. "The costs often stem from the legal fees incurred while fighting to secure ballot access in each state."
Already, Democratic Party members are moving to block Kennedy from appearing on the ballots in Hawaii and Michigan.
Looking back in history, there have been independent candidates who successfully navigated the ballot access process in nearly all states. George Wallace in 1968 and Ross Perot in 1992 managed to secure spots on all 50 state ballots, while Ralph Nader reached 43 states in 2000.
Despite these achievements, only Wallace was able to secure electoral votes. Perot's significant 19% of the popular vote in 1992 did not translate into Electoral College success.
Former campaign manager for Perot, Russell Verney, noted that third-party candidates face even greater challenges today.
"With each moderately successful independent candidate, state legislatures, predominantly composed of Republicans and Democrats who are averse to competition, raise the barriers to ballot access," Verney observed. "The hurdles for securing a spot on state ballots only grow more burdensome with each election cycle."
But "someone in RFK's position, I don't think the Democrats are going to stop him," Tamas said. "I think he's going to be on — if not all — then probably most of the ballots."
A successful third-party candidate has to focus on individuals who aren't being represented by the major parties, Tamas said, and that's a problem for Kennedy.
"He's all over the place, and it's really not clear what's the disaffected group he's trying to tap into," Tamas said. "He's running on conspiracy theories is part of it. But if someone's a conspiracy theorist, chances are they're going to support Donald Trump."
At this point, if Kennedy's ballot petitions were validated in all of the states where his website says the signature gathering is complete — Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, Iowa, North Carolina and New Hampshire — plus Louisiana, which, as noted, does not have a signature requirement, and the two states where he is on the ballot — he could win 73 electoral votes. Add in the three states where his super PAC says it has the signatures, and that's another 36, putting him at 109.
The latest YouGov/Economist national polling shows Mr. Biden and Trump tied with 44% and Kennedy at 3%.
Kennedy's support is likely to drop off before November, Tamas predicted.
But it's not yet clear whether Mr. Biden or Trump stands to lose more from Kennedy's presidential bid.
Uncertainty Surrounds Impact of New Candidate on Election
Speculation is rife as a new candidate enters the political arena, with many questioning the potential impact on existing parties. "Nobody really knows for sure who he's going to take votes from," a political analyst remarked.
