On this "Face the Nation" broadcast, moderated by Margaret Brennan:
- John Kirby, National Security Council coordinator of strategic communications
- House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Rep. Michael McCaul, Republican of Texas
- Sen. Mark Kelly, Democrat of Arizona
- Ret. Gen. Frank McKenzie, former commander of U.S. Central Command
- Samantha Vinograd, CBS News national security contributor and former Homeland Security official
- Kristalina Georgieva, International Monetary Fund director
Click here to browse full transcripts of "Face the Nation."
MARGARET BRENNAN: I'm Margaret Brennan in Washington.
And this week on Face the Nation: Iran launches a massive retaliatory attack on Israel. Will it lead to a major escalation of conflict in the region?
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MARGARET BRENNAN: Overnight, Iran launched its first ever direct attack on Israel. Most of the hundreds of drones and missiles were shot down by Israeli defense systems and its allies, including the U.S., in a powerful show of international support.
But how and will Israel respond? And will those allies be able to keep the response intact?
With the declaration made before the attack that "Whoever hurts us, we heard him," the pressure mounts on Prime Minister Netanyahu to cease further engagement and end the war with Hamas. President Biden is also facing pressure to restrain the Israeli prime minister. Domestically, support for the Israeli side of the conflict with Hamas in Gaza is dwindling, particularly among Democrats.
We will provide updates on the latest developments and discuss why the next steps are crucial for the security of the Middle East and the perception of U.S. leadership globally.
Tune in to Face the Nation for more on this developing situation.
Welcome to Face the Nation. As reports come in, the damage from the recent strikes appears to be minimal. Now, attention turns to the response from the Israelis.
President Biden's recent conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu will shed light on potential actions moving forward.
In the United States, mounting political pressure on President Biden is urging action to halt Israel's six-month conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
A recent CBS News poll, conducted prior to the Iran strikes, reveals that only a third of Americans approve of President Biden's handling of the conflict, marking a five-point decrease since February. Interestingly, within the Democratic Party, more individuals now express significant sympathy towards the Palestinian people compared to the Israeli side.
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From the north to the south, Israel's powerful air defense systems intercepted over 300 Iranian drones and missiles in collaboration with the United States, Jordan, and the U.K.
The feared scenario of a state-to-state confrontation following the October 7 Hamas attack has become a reality, raising concerns of a potential regional war. Supporters of Iran celebrated the strikes, with the regime claiming that their operation True Promise had surpassed expectations, despite Israel's assertion of intercepting 99 percent of the incoming threats.
According to Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, spokesperson for the Israeli Defense Forces, a few Iranian missiles landed in Israeli territory, causing minor damage to a military base but resulting in no casualties.
Israel is currently deliberating its response, with former Israeli Consul General Alon Pinkas revealing that President Biden cautioned Prime Minister Netanyahu against retaliating in response to the situation.
Alon Pinkas (Former Israeli Consul General): Biden reportedly warned Netanyahu that any actions taken against Iran in this context would not receive support from the United States.
According to Alon Pinkas, Netanyahu stands to gain from a conflict with Iran amidst mounting dissatisfaction over his government's inability to safeguard Israelis from the recent attack on October 7. Pinkas further stated that Netanyahu sought to escalate tensions with Iran as early as November, using it as a means to shift the focus away from the October 7 incident by embedding it within a larger narrative. Prior to the attack, a large number of Israeli protestors in Tel Aviv expressed their discontent with Netanyahu's handling of the Gaza conflict and escalating tensions with Iran. Pinkas also mentioned that Iran had intentionally leaked information about the strike, ensuring that most of the missiles and drones could be intercepted, allowing for a dramatic display with minimal actual damage that Israel could opt to disengage from.
Shifting gears, let's now hear from John Kirby, the Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the White House National Security Council.
Good morning, and welcome back.
JOHN KIRBY (NSC Coordinator For Strategic Communications): Thank you, Margaret. Good to be with you.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Do you think Iran aimed for these attacks to be effective and deadly, or merely to appear as such?
In a recent exchange, JOHN KIRBY emphasized the magnitude of the attack on Israel from Iran, with over 300 missiles and drones launched. Despite the clear intent to cause harm, the attempt was unsuccessful.
MARGARET BRENNAN acknowledged Israel's military dominance in the situation, noting the Israeli foreign minister's warning of retaliation if Iran strikes from its territory.
Kirby was asked if Israel had assured the U.S. of prior notification before taking action against Iran. He declined to delve into specifics of the recent conversation between the president and the prime minister, focusing instead on the successful collaboration between Israel and its allies. The events of the night made it evident that Israel is not alone in its defense, with the United States and other nations standing by their side. The conversation concluded with Kirby deferring to the prime minister and the war cabinet for discussions on future actions.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And that war cabinet meeting is ongoing.
But – but I ask because, as you know, the U.S. has significant presence in the region, troops in Iraq, in Syria, in Jordan.
JOHN KIRBY: We do indeed.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And there is risk to them.
JOHN KIRBY: Absolutely.
MARGARET BRENNAN: And you said and the Pentagon spokesperson said that the U.S. was not notified in advance by Israel before they carried out the April 1 attack that started this chain of events.
Should they have forewarned the United States? And, as a matter of principle, what is the U.S. position on bombing what Iran says was a diplomatic facility?
JOHN KIRBY: I – again, I won't talk about the details of that particular strike.
To the larger point, obviously, we do have a lot of troops in Iraq and Syria going after ISIS. We have a lot of facilities elsewhere in the region and ships at sea. And so what happens there certainly has an effect on us. And we do want to make sure that the conversations…
MARGARET BRENNAN: The risk level went up.
JOHN KIRBY: We want to make sure the conversations we're having with the Israelis are as contextual as possible, so that we can make the necessary preparations for our own troops and facilities.
The other message the president sent over the last few days – and, certainly, it was discussed last night – is, we're going to take whatever steps we need to take to protect our troops, our ships, our facilities in the region going forward.
And that was the case last night, before the strikes last night, and it's going to be the case today going forward.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Does the U.S. need to be prepared to draw down a presence from any of our diplomatic facilities or reposition…
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JOHN KIRBY: That's a conversation that the president and Secretary Blinken are having literally in real time. They talked about that as well yesterday.
I won't speak for Secretary Blinken and the State Department. They'll make those kinds of force protection decisions as they see the threat in – in the region. But the threat changes from time to time. And – and you're always monitoring that.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But I know you don't want to go into a phone call between leaders.
The discussion revolves around the potential repercussions for the United States. Is there a belief that Prime Minister Netanyahu also aims to prevent further escalation, aligning with the president's intentions?
JOHN KIRBY: It's evident that the prime minister understands the president's stance on avoiding conflict with Iran and his efforts to de-escalate tensions. Since October 7th, the president has been actively working to prevent a wider regional conflict.
Our ability to assist Israel in intercepting missiles and drones was bolstered by recent decisions to position extra naval assets in the Eastern Mediterranean and deploy an additional fighter squadron in the area. These actions had a significant impact on the recent events.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Serving as a deterrent against a potentially graver situation.
JOHN KIRBY: To avert further devastation within Israel.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Would the U.S. engage in offensive measures if Israel retaliates?
JOHN KIRBY: I prefer not to speculate on hypothetical scenarios, Margaret, as I mentioned earlier.
MARGARET BRENNAN: In principle?
JOHN KIRBY: The president has clearly stated our stance - we are not seeking a war with Iran or a broader conflict in the region.
And everything we've been doing since the 7th has been designed to prevent that outcome.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Because the IRGC chief of staff went on TV saying they sent a message to the U.S. via the Swiss Embassy saying, if the U.S. participates in an Israeli reprisal, U.S. bases and personnel will not be in the security zone.
JOHN KIRBY: Yes, I'm mindful – I'm mindful of the – of the comment and the statement.
Again, I'm just going back to what I said before. We're not looking for a war with Iran, not looking for a broader regional conflict. But the other thing the president has made clear is, we will do what we have to do to help Israel defend itself – and we did last night – and we will do everything we need to do to make sure our troops, our facilities, and our ships at sea in the region are also protected.
We have interests in the region too. Now, obviously, we're all focused on Israel, and rightly so. But we have broader national security interests in the Middle East.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Mm-hmm.
JOHN KIRBY: We have a force posture that we're constantly monitoring to make sure we can meet those interests.
JOHN KIRBY: Tomorrow. Tomorrow.
Yes, we do anticipate having a good discussion about not just the force posture, but the mission set inside Iraq and what that looks like. I think you know it's an advise-and-assist mission.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.
JOHN KIRBY: It's to help the Iraqi Defense Forces and their operations to go after ISIS inside Iraq.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The Mossad announced this morning that Hamas rejected this latest proposal for the release of hostages, saying it proves Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, does not want a deal.
Does the U.S. share that assessment? Is the diplomacy dead, or is this just another bump in the road?
JOHN KIRBY: We're not considering diplomacy dead.
A recent negotiation led by Director Burns in Cairo has brought forth a new deal that holds promise. This deal aims to evacuate the most vulnerable individuals - women, elderly, and the wounded, establish a six-week cease-fire for some respite, and facilitate the delivery of more humanitarian aid.
It is crucial for the Hamas leaders to seriously consider this deal. The situation is not considered hopeless at this point.
MARGARET BRENNAN: OK.
So, the rejection by Mossad doesn't mean the end of discussions?
JOHN KIRBY: We are not treating it as a closed chapter.
MARGARET BRENNAN: OK.
During your last appearance here, you mentioned the U.S. planned to engage in talks with Israel regarding their intentions to enter Southern Gaza, specifically Rafah. When will these talks take place? Are there any updates?
JOHN KIRBY: We anticipate these discussions - in fact, there have been preliminary technical talks since our last conversation.
We are looking forward to a more comprehensive dialogue with our Israeli counterparts in the upcoming days, hopefully within this week.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Hopefully this week.
JOHN KIRBY: Yes, hopefully this week.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Thank you, John Kirby.
JOHN KIRBY: Thank you.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Now, let's shift our focus to the Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Congressman Michael McCaul from Texas.
It's great to be back on the show.
REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-Texas): Thank you for having me, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We just heard from Mr. Kirby about the conversations in regard to U.S. personnel in the region.
In your role, you have oversight of the State Department and some of these embassies.
REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: Mm-hmm.
MARGARET BRENNAN: How concerned are you about the security threats to Americans abroad? And is the U.S. prepared to do an evacuation, if needed?
REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: You know, we're always concerned.
And we don't want escalation in the region. That would be a threat to our troops and our embassies. As I understand, talking to the State Department, the embassy is in good shape right now…
MARGARET BRENNAN: The embassy in Israel?
REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: Yes.
And I think the fact of the matter is, as Mr. Kirby mentioned, is, 99 percent of these rockets and drones were shot down.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Right.
REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: Pretty impressive display of force, showing of force, in collaboration with the United States, Jordan, and other allies.
And it also showed us Iran's not 10-feet-tall.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Mm-hmm, not 10-feet-tall militarily. Fair assessment there.
So, I'm sure, then, you don't agree with some of your Republican colleagues who are saying that this necessitates any kind of military action against Iran?
Representative Michael McCaul expressed his views on the situation, emphasizing the importance of unity between Israel and the United States. He highlighted the need for a coordinated response and mentioned the possibility of targeting the facilities responsible for producing drones and rockets, linking the issue to the conflict in Ukraine.
McCaul drew parallels between the recent events in Israel and the ongoing situation in Ukraine, underscoring the severity of the threat posed by these weapons. He referenced Ukraine's ambassador's remarks on the collaboration between Russia, Iran, and North Korea, labeling it as an "axis of evil."
Despite his sense of urgency, McCaul noted a lack of alignment with the speaker of the House on the gravity of the situation.
Why is there still not a date for a vote on Ukraine? I did see the statement from Steve Scalise, the whip, saying that there should be a consideration of legislation to support Israel. But what does that mean? Is that a vote on the national security supplemental?
REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: That is a speaker determination. I will be speaking, talking to him this evening with other national security people and chairs.
I think it's – I talked to the ambassador, our ambassador to Ukraine as well. She said the situation is dire. You know, Kharkiv could implode any day now. That's two million people. And the power grid is under threat right now. If the power grid goes out in Ukraine altogether, we don't have time on our side here, Margaret. We have to get this done.
I would implore – what I need to educate my colleagues, that they're all tied together.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Yes.
REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: I mean, Iran is selling this stuff to Russia. Guess who's buying Iran's energy? China. And you know why? Because we lifted or waived the sanctions that we had, this administration, on the drones and the missiles and on the energy.
This has given them $100 billion in cash to fund their terror operations.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You're talking about Iran.
REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: And that's why we're seeing this.
The arguments presented in the Senate bill are lacking in depth and comprehensive strategy. As an eternal optimist, I am committed to doing my part. Just like in World War II, where we didn't selectively choose our enemies, we must address all threats, whether it be Iran, Russia, or China. We cannot afford to isolate one and ignore the rest, as they are interconnected in various ways. This understanding is crucial for those of us in the intelligence and national security community.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Mm-hmm.
REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: We went after all of them, Japan, Italy, and Germany. We can't just pick and say, Iran is bad, but Russia is OK, and China is bad. I mean…
MARGARET BRENNAN: Can't do stand-alone funding.
REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: They're all in this together. And it's very clear to those of us in the intelligence, national security community.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You said something interesting here. You said you have to educate your colleagues.
Our polling shows that, among Republicans, the most trusted source of information on Ukraine and Russia is Donald Trump, 79 percent, Congressman.
REPRESENTATIVE MICHAEL MCCAUL: Mm-hmm.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Sixty percent trust the Pentagon. Conservative media is 56 percent, which is separated from actual journalists in war zones, which is 33 percent, the State Department, 27 percent.
How do you fight that information war, when the Republican front-runner for the presidential nomination is helping to spread some of that disinformation about the war effort?
Representative Michael McCaul expressed the importance of Speaker's visit to Mar-a-Lago to discuss the Ukraine package and secure agreement on the loan program for direct government assistance. McCaul highlighted the significance of supporting Ukraine to avoid long-term repercussions and ensure a stronger America. He emphasized the need for Trump's endorsement to pass any bill, acknowledging the former president's influence over the Republican conference. McCaul also noted the gravity of the current threat, comparing it to World War II.
Margaret Brennan raised the point that Trump's endorsement seems crucial for bill approval, even though he is no longer in office. McCaul admitted Trump's significant influence but highlighted the independence of each representative and the necessity for discussions with the former president.
Last night, we witnessed a successful defense by Israel against a very aggressive act by Iran. This direct attack from Iranian territory marks a significant escalation from their usual tactics through proxies over the past few months.
The priority now is to prevent further escalation into a broader conflict. However, we must also remain vigilant regarding Iran's nuclear weapons capability, as they could rapidly advance if they decide to do so.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But as of now, they have not made that political decision?
SENATOR MARK KELLY: That is the assessment of our intelligence community.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Understood.
SENATOR MARK KELLY: I concur with that assessment.
MARGARET BRENNAN: A recent poll conducted before the Iranian retaliation shows a decrease in Democrats' support for providing weapons to Israel, dropping from nearly half to one-third since October 7. The latest data suggests that Democrats are now more sympathetic towards Palestinians than Israelis.
Do you fear that Israel's actions in the Gaza conflict, including the use of U.S. military equipment, could impact President Biden's standing in the upcoming election?
SENATOR MARK KELLY: My primary concern lies with the well-being of both the Israeli and Palestinian people.
I mean, Israel was violently attacked on October 7. I have watched an hour of footage from that day. It was horrific. And Israel has a right to defend itself. The way this has been conducted in Gaza, I have serious concerns. I have expressed those, just most recently about a week ago with the Israeli ambassador about what happened with the World Central Kitchen, reckless act and irresponsible. And they need to do better.
We provide them with significant aid. And we're going to need to provide them with more, by the way, here because of what happened last night. We're going to need to replenish their rounds.
Yes, I mean, I'm always – you know, I'm concerned with perceptions and – and an election. But the thing that's always top of mind for me, because I sit on the Intelligence Committee, I'm on the Armed Services Committee, it's our own national security and the national security of our allies.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Mm-hmm.
And, Senator, I know, you've been concerned about the security of Ukraine as well and that national security supplemental. I want to talk to you more in-depth about that and what's happening in your home state in a moment.
But I'm going to have to take a commercial break here, so stay with us.
And we hope that all of you will stay with us as we talk as well about the Arizona Supreme Court decision last week that shook the political world.
Stay with us.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: For the first time in American history, a former president will stand trial in a criminal case beginning tomorrow.
Former President Trump Accused of Falsifying Business Records
Former President Trump is accused of falsifying business records in a hush money scheme to cover up an alleged affair with adult film star Stormy Daniels.
At a campaign rally last night in Pennsylvania, Trump alleged that the trials were part of a Democrat-led effort to keep him from running and winning the election.
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DONALD TRUMP (Former President of the United States (R) and Current U.S. Presidential Candidate): This is what you call a communist show trial. And we're going communist. Don't kid yourself. We don't win this election, this country is finished.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: We will be right back.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: We will be right back with a lot more Face the Nation and more from Senator Kelly, as well as analysis on the Iranian attack, plus an interview with the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva.
That's in our next half-hour, so don't go away.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to FACE THE NATION.
We are continuing our conversation now with Senator Mark Kelly.
The current situation in Ukraine has raised questions about China's decision to assist Russia in the conflict. Senator Mark Kelly believes that China sees the outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine as crucial to its own stance on issues like Taiwan and the western Pacific. He emphasizes the interconnectedness of various global factors, including Iran, Ukraine, and China. Kelly points out that Ukrainian ammunition supplies are depleting while Russia's capacity is increasing, and with China's support, Russia could secure victory. On the other hand, supporting Ukraine could lead to a different outcome.
Kelly highlights the urgency of passing an emergency supplemental measure that has been pending for two months. He urges swift action to support Ukraine and mentions the potential benefits for Israel as well. The conversation underscores the complex web of international relations and the need for strategic decision-making in the face of evolving conflicts.
I want to inquire about the current situation in your home state of Arizona. The state court has made a ruling on an 1864 Civil War-era law that could potentially criminalize abortion. Although it is currently on hold, the issue remains active. Do you believe that your state legislators will take necessary action before it is enforced?
SENATOR MARK KELLY: Well, let me begin by stating that this has had devastating consequences for women in Arizona. They have been stripped of a fundamental right to abortion. This situation can be attributed to Donald Trump. Despite attempts by our legislature a few days ago to address this, their efforts were unsuccessful. We are now looking towards a ballot initiative in November to rectify this. Donald Trump must take responsibility for this. He openly declared just yesterday that he dismantled Roe v. Wade. As a result, our court was able to revive this harsh 1864 law, leading to the criminalization of abortion and putting doctors at risk of imprisonment.
MARGARET BRENNAN: It is important to acknowledge that your Republican state legislators also bear responsibility in this matter. They had the power to take a different course of action. However, I understand your point.
SENATOR MARK KELLY: Indeed, they had the opportunity to act differently, but unfortunately, they chose not to.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Exactly.
SENATOR MARK KELLY: They had the chance.
MARGARET BRENNAN: But there is that initiative you just mentioned to put on the ballot in November, a chance for your state to vote on this particular issue. And it would guarantee abortion access up to viability, which is anywhere between 21 and 24 weeks typically of pregnancy.
From a political position, how much is this going to help offset some of the disappointment and exhaustion we're seeing in polling from Democratic voters? Will this issue drive up turnout in a way that benefits the president in your state?
SENATOR MARK KELLY: Well, my first concern is women in Arizona and their - and their health. And women could die from this 1864 ruling that once again was enabled by the former president. So, that's my biggest concern.
We're going to have an election in November. I imagine we're going to have large turnout because of this issue. I also want to point out, Margaret, that I don't think this represents who we are in the state of Arizona. This is a moment in time. We're going to get through this. We have an opportunity to fix this in November.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, we will be watching to see what happens, Senator.
Thank you very much for joining us today.
SENATOR MARK KELLY: Well, thank you. Thank you, Margaret.
MARGARET BRENNAN:
And we're going to go now to the former commander for U.S. Central Command, General Frank McKenzie, who is also the author of a new book, "The Melting Point," available in June.
General:
Welcome back to FACE THE NATION.
MARGARET BRENNAN:
Given what you just saw play out in the last 24 hours, I wonder if you think that deterrence has been reestablished, and on the spectrum of options that Iran had before it, how big did it go last night?
GEN. FRANK MCKENZIE (RET.), (Former Commander of U.S. Central Command):
Well, first of all, good to see you, Margaret. I think this was a big attack by Iran. I think this was as close to a maximum effort they could generate. And I'll illustrate it in this way. Iran has over 3,000 missiles of various types scattered around the country. They have about 100 - probably a little more than that - missiles largely in western Iran that can target Israel. Based on what the Israelis are saying, I believe they fired most of those weapons at Israel. The Israelis, obviously, were able to intercept most of them. Iran could not replicate last night's attack tonight if they had to.
The recent attack by the Iranians on Israel showcased a multidimensional approach, utilizing cruise missiles and drones in a maximum effort to cause casualties. This indiscriminate attack was far from moderate, as highlighted by John Kirby in his assessment of the situation. The Iranians may now try to backtrack and speak of moderation, but the nature and scope of their attack speak otherwise.
Despite this, the Israelis, with the assistance of other nations including the United Kingdom, responded magnificently. The Iranians, who considered their ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles as vital capabilities, have now seen these weapons fail in a major combat test. As a result, Israel stands stronger today while Iran is relatively weaker.
Looking ahead, the focus shifts to the political decisions that Israel's leadership will make regarding a reprisal. The potential for regional escalation looms, and the advice to Israeli leaders on whether to pull back or escalate further is crucial in determining the future course of action.
After the recent battle where Israel emerged victorious, Frank McKenzie highlighted the importance of restraint as an opportunity for the victor. He advised against hasty decisions, particularly regarding the Iranian nuclear program, which he deemed a false target. McKenzie emphasized the power dynamics, noting Israel's capability to dictate terms due to the evident gap in zealotry and competence between Israel and Iran. Despite Israel's strength, McKenzie suggested that showing restraint could be a strategic move.
In response to Chairman McCaul's statement about Iran not being as formidable as perceived, McKenzie acknowledged Israel's ongoing concerns, particularly regarding Lebanese Hezbollah in the north. He pointed out that while there were minor skirmishes on the northern border, the restraint shown by Lebanese Hezbollah indicated their awareness of Israel's capabilities and the potential consequences of engaging in a full-scale conflict.
The Iranians have always been seen as formidable, but not invincible. Even the Israelis share this view. Their determination and recent actions have earned my respect. However, it is time for Iran to reflect on and possibly reconsider the fundamental principles underlying their military strategy.
Lebanese Hezbollah has not yet significantly intervened in this conflict. There have been warnings about the potential impact if they were to get involved, and it's something to keep an eye on.
You played a key role in the operation that led to the elimination of IRGC Commander Qassem Soleimani during the previous administration. Iran's response at that time was seen as relatively restrained.
Given the current situation, how worried should the United States be about the safety of its personnel and troops in regions like Iraq and Syria? With the Iraqi prime minister's visit to the White House this week, this issue is in the spotlight.
Our military presence in Iraq and Syria, assisting Iraqi forces in anti-ISIS efforts and supporting our partners in eastern Syria, is at risk of attacks from Iran or its proxies. This vulnerability has been acknowledged, and the president has been firm in his warnings to them.
MARGARET BRENNAN:
We're joined now by CBS News national security contributor Samantha Vinograd, formerly the assistant secretary of counterterrorism at Homeland Security, and she served on the National Security Council in the Obama administration.
Great to have you back, Sam.
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD:
Good to see you.
MARGARET BRENNAN:
So, we are talking about decisions that have to be made at the top of the Israeli government right now. The United States and Israel are still lockstep on defense matters, but we know there's this rift in terms of the choices the prime minister has been making lately. There are sources that I speak to within the Biden administration who are concerned about the decision-making Netanyahu is taking on, and sources in the region who say there's a political benefit to war.
Did Iran just throw Benjamin Netanyahu a lifeline in a time he's politically embattled at home?
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: Reflecting on Israel's perspective on the threat posed by Iran, it is crucial to recognize that Israel sees this as a threat to its very existence. Our close collaboration with the Israeli government from the White House underscores this existential concern. Benjamin Netanyahu has long emphasized existential threats as a means to maintain his political power. The recent attack on Israel will likely bolster Netanyahu's position.
Moreover, amidst such uncertainty, the call for early elections by Netanyahu's main rival, Benny Gantz, could lead to political paralysis. This would divert crucial resources away from countering the Iranian threat, which is a top priority for Israel at this time.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Gantz has proposed holding these elections in September, which, while early, would not coincide with the ongoing conflict. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further conflicts in the near future.
Recent polling indicates that half of the population believes that the threat of terrorism will rise, not only for Israel but also for the United States, due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. The FBI director's testimony highlighted a surge in investigations into self-radicalized individuals since October 7th.
It is important for Americans to grasp the domestic implications of this threat and remain vigilant.
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: Well, let's keep in mind what happens overseas often doesn't stay overseas. From a counterterrorism perspective, I was in the room after October 7th. I can tell you that the administration has been deeply focused on really ensuring two things. One, that foreign terrorists don't seek to travel to the homeland to inflict damage here. But more importantly, we know, factually speaking, that terrorist groups and Iran, who's the largest state sponsor of terror in the world, uses these kinds of high profile events, like what we saw last night, as mass marketing opportunities.
Iran's attack against Israel is a mass marketing opportunity from Iran, and its proxies to try to radicalize supporters. We know that terrorist organizations have been using the Israel-Hamas conflict to try to inspire supporters and operatives all around the world to act, primarily against places of worship, entities believed to be associated with the state of Israel. And that's why I don't believe that there is a homeland security nexus to what unfolded last night in the homeland at this time based on sources that I've been speaking with. However, out of an abundance of caution, the federal government, state and local partners, are taking every step possible to insure that nothing reverberates here.
During the meeting last night, the homeland security adviser was present with the president, Secretary Blinken, Secretary Austin, and other officials. Reports from the New York Police Department, L.A. Police Department, and others suggest an increase in patrols around places of worship. The call is for law enforcement and intelligence partners to stay alert and for community members to report anything suspicious. The current biggest international terrorism threat to the homeland is individuals who are inspired by events overseas to take action.
MARGARET BRENNAN: The director of national intelligence has warned that the Israeli war in Gaza could have long-lasting effects on terrorism. Polls indicate a decrease in support for Israel's actions in the conflict. How worried are your former colleagues about Israel's strategic losses and growing isolation?
SAMANTHA VINOGRAD: From a counterterrorism perspective, it is a fact that what is happening in Gaza is being used, again, as a mass marketing opportunity, not only because the suffering is incredibly difficult for anyone to watch. Hamas and other Iranian proxies are using those images to try to rally support against Israel, whether it be here in the homeland or more broadly across the world. I think the biggest concern right now is ensure that Israel has what it needs to deter Iran, not just today but going forward. And so when we think about what Israel's next move is going to be, we also have to think about what the international community is going to do to ensure that Iran loses the funding, to - for its ballistic and cruise missile program and tries to take - or takes a step back from funding terrorism from around the world.
MARGARET BRENNAN: We'll see what that international response is at the U.N. and elsewhere.
Sam, thank you very much for your analysis.
We'll be back in a moment.
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MARGARET BRENNAN: We're back with the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva. I got it right this time. I apologize.
KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA (Managing Director, International Monetary Fund): You did indeed.
MARGARET BRENNAN: OK.
Oil markets have been swinging because of this instability in the Middle East, escalation risk, the threat to global shipping as well. Can you gauge, at this point, what the economic impact will be?
KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA: The recent events have had a moderate impact so far. When news of a potential strike from Iran into Israel surfaced on Friday, oil prices rose by 1 percent. The conflict has primarily affected Israel, devastating Gaza and the West Bank with spillovers into neighboring countries. Even the shipping disruption in the Red Sea has not had a major impact yet, but any disruption, no matter how small, is unwelcome in an economy with high uncertainty and lingering inflation. It's a simple cause and effect - oil prices rise, inflation rises. To reduce uncertainty, all parties involved - be it in politics, the military, or the economy - need to work towards minimizing uncertainties.
MARGARET BRENNAN: There is a lot of uncertainty currently, including the U.S. Congress deliberating on funding for these conflicts. There is a proposal to authorize the Biden administration to seize Russian state assets for potential use in negotiations or to aid in rebuilding Ukraine. What are your thoughts on this proposal?
KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA: The decision on seizing Russian state assets lies with the relevant authorities. Our role is to assess the potential impact of such actions, considering the global ramifications. With $11 trillion in reserves held by countries worldwide, any decision will be closely watched. Our stance is to urge decision-makers to carefully consider the consequences, including unintended ones, before making a move.
MARGARET BRENNAN: What you're suggesting is that this might lead to a potential exodus of funds from the banking systems in Europe, correct?
KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA: We haven't observed a reaction of that scale. Our stance is clear - we live in a connected global economy, despite the risk of division.
MARGARET BRENNAN: I see.
KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA: Nevertheless, nations are interlinked. Hence, any decision made should be carefully considered for its intended impact and potential repercussions.
In a recent interview, Kristalina Georgieva discussed the backlash on globalization that has been observed over the last decade. She highlighted that while an integrated world economy can boost growth prospects and improve living standards, not everyone benefits from it. Communities that have been negatively impacted by globalization and have not received support are at the core of the current backlash. Georgieva emphasized that while trade is beneficial, it may not benefit everyone, and policies should aim to ensure that the benefits are shared more equitably in society.
When asked about the impact of tariffs on inflation, Georgieva, as an economist, agreed that tariffs would contribute to inflation. She explained that the reason for advocating for an integrated world economy is to lower costs and enhance the well-being of people globally. Georgieva expressed the importance of striving for a more integrated economy, noting that trade patterns are already shifting towards longer supply chains, which can lead to higher costs for consumers and contribute to inflation.
