Washington — In a surprising turn of events in mid-March, House Speaker Mike Johnson confidently declared that the wave of resignations among frustrated GOP lawmakers had finally ceased.
"I think, I hope and believe that's the end of the exits for now," the Louisiana Republican stated, only to be caught off guard by Colorado Rep. Ken Buck's sudden decision to leave Congress on March 22.
Just when it seemed like the turmoil was settling, a week later, Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, a prominent figure within the GOP, made a similar announcement of his early departure.
Following Gallagher's exit on April 19, House Republicans will retain control of 217 seats, while Democrats hold 213. This slim margin means that the GOP can only afford to lose a single vote, as 216 constitutes a majority if all members are present and voting.
Despite expectations of gaining strength through special elections in the near future, Republicans face the risk of losing their majority if a few more of their colleagues decide to depart before their terms expire.
"In a scenario where a small number of Republicans decide to leave or are unable to serve due to health reasons, Democrats could potentially gain operational control with their slim majority," noted Matthew Green, a politics professor at Catholic University.
This would mark the first time in history that control of the House switches in the middle of a congressional term. While the Senate experienced a similar shift in 2001, the House saw a comparable situation in 1930 when Republicans held a narrow majority but lost it due to special elections before the 72nd Congress convened in 1931.
Despite the possibility, Green emphasized that the chances of Democrats taking over the House mid-Congress are currently low.
"It's more probable that Republicans will struggle to pass significant legislation with their razor-thin majority for the remainder of this Congress," he added.
Molly Reynolds, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank known for its comprehensive Congress database, echoed the sentiment that a sudden shift in control to Democrats is unlikely. However, she pointed out that any mid-session departures could have a significant impact given the GOP's narrow margin of control.
"Even those individuals who are feeling extremely frustrated with their current service in Congress, especially within the Republican conference, even those individuals do not want to endanger the Republicans' ability to maintain the majority," Reynolds expressed.
If more early retirements occur, Reynolds anticipated that they would be strategically timed around special elections, as mandated by the Constitution to fill House vacancies.
"Even in cases where the seat is considered safe for one party or the other, the time taken to conduct an election and fill the vacant seat varies depending on the state," she explained. "And that is the only method to fill a vacancy in the House."
The upcoming special elections are not expected to threaten the GOP majority. Democrats are projected to retain a seat left by Rep. Brian Higgins in New York in a late April special election. Republicans are anticipated to secure three seats in the subsequent months to fill the gaps left by Buck; Kevin McCarthy of California, who resigned at the end of last year following his removal from the speakership; and Bill Johnson of Ohio, who is now the president of Youngstown State University. Filling these vacancies would provide the GOP majority with a bit more leeway. (There will be no special election to fill Gallagher's seat as he is resigning after the deadline to trigger one.)
Nineteen other Republicans have said they're retiring, are running for another office or have lost their primary. About two dozen Democrats have made similar announcements. So far, those lawmakers haven't indicated they plan to leave their current roles before the start of a new Congress in January. Then again, neither did Buck or Gallagher when they initially announced they wouldn't seek reelection.
After Easter, the House will return to more dysfunction spurred by Republican infighting, which could convince others to leave early. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has called for Johnson's removal from the speakership after he supported a massive spending bill to fund the government. With that threat hanging over him, Johnson will also have to navigate fractures within his party over sending more aid to Ukraine.
"If Speaker Johnson is doing his job, he is talking to those announced retirees regularly, checking in to make sure they will not leave early," Green said. "The fact that the speaker was caught off guard by some of these early retirements doesn't speak well to his ability to keep his finger on the pulse of the conference."
According to a representative for Johnson, the speaker and House GOP leadership are actively engaging with both current and retiring members to stress the crucial need to safeguard and uphold the House Republican majority in the upcoming year, as well as to expand the majority in the 2024 elections.
