The devastating March 22 terrorist attack on a packed concert hall in the Moscow suburbs brought Afghanistan abruptly back into the spotlight, as suspicions quickly fell on the ISIS branch in the country. While ISIS attributed the carnage to a never-before-mentioned Russian wing, the U.S. had warned about two weeks earlier of intelligence suggesting the Afghan affiliate, ISIS-Khorasan or ISIS-K, was planning attacks in Russia.

Russian officials also said, at about the same time, that they'd thwarted another ISIS-K plot  targeting a synagogue in Moscow. 

Four men identified by Russia as suspects in the concert hall attack, dragged before a judge bearing signs of significant beatings this week, were all said to be nationals of Tajikistan. That country sits right on Afghanistan's northern border, and many of ISIS-K's fighters are believed to be Tajik nationals. 

So while Moscow hurls accusations at Ukraine that both Kyiv and Washington say are baseless, and no positive link has been established between the concert hall attack and ISIS' Afghan franchise, it has renewed concern about the promise made by Afghanistan's Taliban rulers to prevent the country from once again becoming a haven for terrorist groups to plot attacks around the world.

Exploring the Dynamic Between the Taliban and ISIS-K

Over the years, Afghanistan has been a hub for various terrorist groups, especially during the extended presence of U.S. and allied forces in the region. Following the resurgence of the Taliban's control nearly three years ago, many militant organizations have ceased their operations within the country.

However, ISIS-K stands out as an exception. Despite the shifting landscape, ISIS-K has not only sustained its activities but has actively sought to undermine the authority of the Taliban through violent means.

While both groups are rooted in Islamic fundamentalism and share the U.S. government's terrorist designation, their ideologies and objectives diverge significantly, leading to a state of conflict between the two factions.

For more than two decades, the Taliban's primary objective was to overthrow the U.S.-backed Afghan government and impose its strict interpretation of Islamic law, a goal that they have successfully achieved.

In contrast, ISIS-K is recognized as a prominent offshoot of the broader global network that originated from the conflicts in Iraq and Syria. Established in 2015 along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, ISIS-K aims to establish an Islamic caliphate in the region, similar to its past endeavors in Iraq and Syria, while also expanding its terrorist activities on a global scale.

Challenges Ahead: Taliban's Battle Against ISIS-K

Recent years have seen ISIS-K carrying out impactful assaults on Taliban officials in Afghanistan, resulting in the loss of key figures and innocent lives. In a recent incident, a suicide bombing in Kandahar province targeted Taliban employees waiting outside a bank to collect their pay.

Can the Taliban Overcome ISIS-K?

Following their resurgence as Afghanistan's ruling power, the Taliban now stand as a formidable military force, equipped with weaponry abandoned by departing U.S. and allied troops in 2021. While the Taliban has shown resolve in confronting ISIS-K within Afghanistan, experts suggest that the group's ability to address ISIS-K's activities beyond the country's borders remains uncertain.

Analysts and UN representatives point to a series of attacks and thwarted schemes attributed to ISIS-K in Iran, Russia, and Europe, raising doubts about the Taliban's commitment and capacity to suppress the group's operations internationally.

"The Taliban's clashes with ISIS-K within Afghanistan are evident, given the group's status as the primary armed opposition to their rule," remarked Asfandyar Mir, a security specialist in South Asia at the United States Institute of Peace. However, Mir highlighted that ISIS-K's activities in Europe, the attack in Kerman, Iran, and the recent incident in Moscow, highlight concerns about the Taliban's effectiveness in curtailing ISIS-K's ability to launch external attacks.

Just a year after the Taliban reassumed power in Afghanistan, the group's promise to the U.S. — written into the withdrawal agreement brokered by the Trump administration in 2020 — to prevent terror groups from using the country as a base, was pointedly challenged. 

Al Qaeda's top leader, Ayman Al Zawahiri, was killed by a U.S. drone strike in the diplomatic district of Kabul at the end of July 2022. 

• Al Qaeda appears to be growing in Afghanistan under the Taliban

During the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from the country the previous year, Taliban forces freed thousands of prisoners, including many ISIS-K fighters. In the mayhem, and without any military air power, those militants found ready access to weapons, and freedom of movement.  

"The growing ISIS-K capacity to project threats far beyond its bastions in Afghanistan has been evident in recent months," noted Michael Kugelman, who serves as the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington during an interview with CBS News. Kugelman emphasized that "ISIS-K, like the parent Islamic State and other regional affiliates, is deeply committed to global activities. It was only a matter of time before their capacity aligned with their intentions, and it appears that ISIS-K has now reached that critical point."

On Monday, France escalated its national security threat level to the highest point following revelations from the country's Interior Ministry about two foiled attempted attacks by ISIS-K. The targets of these thwarted attacks included an LGBTQ nightclub and Jewish or Christian religious sites.

Kugelman further explained to CBS News that the group "undoubtedly possesses the capability to pose threats to countries across various regions globally." He highlighted that the group's potential for external targeting hinges on multiple factors such as the support received from the parent Islamic State, financial backing, recruitment of foreign fighters, and the international community's efforts to combat the escalating global threat posed by ISIS-K.

Samantha Vinograd, a former counterterrorism official for the Department of Homeland Security during the Biden and Obama administrations and a contributor to CBS News, remarked on "Face the Nation" post the Moscow attack that despite territorial and leadership setbacks, ISIS has maintained its operational capacity, primarily through its regional branches like ISIS-K.

"The ongoing threat from ISIS-K has been a major concern for American interests and homeland security," stated a security expert. "We've seen ISIS-K expand their operations, including attacks outside the Kabul airport and on the Russian Embassy in Kabul in 2022."

The expert emphasized the need for intelligence-based screening to counter the ISIS-K threat and expressed concerns about the lack of resources for informed vetting decisions. With intelligence capabilities lost due to withdrawals in Afghanistan and Iraq, the challenge of mitigating the threat persists.

Reports indicate that ISIS-K's training camps are concentrated in Afghanistan's north, northeast, and eastern provinces, with new ones established in 2022.

Despite the Taliban's claims of neutralizing the ISIS-K threat through regular operations targeting the group, concerns remain about the ongoing presence and activities of the terrorist organization.

"While the Taliban asserts that ISIS-K has been eliminated in Afghanistan, the reality on the ground may be different," said a security analyst. "During the U.S. and allied forces' occupation, ISIS-K controlled certain areas in Afghanistan. However, the current situation warrants continued vigilance."