Your beloved wines may be on the verge of extinction. Some of the classic wine regions around the world, spanning from Europe to Southern California, are facing the risk of vanishing within the next few decades as the conditions required for grape cultivation become increasingly unfavorable due to climate change.
With the ongoing combustion of fossil fuels, the Earth is gradually warming up. This rise in temperatures, affecting various aspects such as the water cycle and habitable zones, is leading to more severe weather patterns. In a recent review published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, researchers highlighted the significant impact of climate change on the coastal and lowland areas of Spain, Italy, Greece, and Southern California - all renowned for being home to some of the most traditional wine producers in the world.
According to the study, by the end of this century - a mere 76 years from now - approximately 90% of these specific regions could be on the brink of disappearance. The escalating threat is primarily attributed to prolonged droughts and more frequent heatwaves, exacerbated by climate change. Factors like temperature, precipitation, humidity, radiation, and carbon dioxide levels, crucial for wine production, are being significantly altered by the changing climate.
Overall, the study says, "We estimate a substantial risk of unsuitability (ranging from moderate to high) for 49-70% of existing wine regions, contingent on the degree of global warming."
Southern California, for example, has a moderate risk of being unsuitable for producing wine with 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, compared to pre-industrial levels. if average temperatures rise between 2 and 4 degrees, however, the region faces a "high risk of unsuitability." This could pose a major problem for the U.S. West Coast, which produces most of the wine in North America and 10% of the global supply.
"Overall, the net suitable area for wine production in California could decline by up to 50% by the end of the 21st century," researchers said. "Similar risks exist for Mexico, the southwestern United States and those regions of the east coast south of New Jersey."
That shift is seen across much of southern Europe as well.
But all hope isn't lost for wine itself. The rising temperatures may make other regions more suitable for growing the grapes, such as Washington State, Oregon, Tasmania and Northern France. That suitability, however, will "strongly" depend on how much temperatures rise, the researchers say, and there may be risks to environmental preservation. And even though it could bring a new form of economic growth to those areas, people will still be facing extreme weather and its costly impacts.
A changing climate also brings the risk of areas experiencing new pathogens and insects that can impact agriculture and overall environmental and human health. Drier conditions would make some grapevine issues, like downy mildew, less likely, but when it does happen, the outbreak would likely occur earlier and spread faster, the study found.
As with all elements of climate change, adaptation is "mandatory," researchers said. Wine producers will need to consider grape varieties that are better suited for their changing regions and harvest times. It's not just essential for global supply, but for overall wine quality.
For example, climate factors affect the levels of pH, alcohol content and acidity, researchers found. While the alcohol and pH levels are increasing in wines, the acidity levels are decreasing, which makes the microbiology within the beverage more unstable. That can lead to "increased risk of microbiological spoilage," researchers said, and lead to an "overripe and/or cooked fruit aroma."
Experts caution that current efforts to combat global warming are insufficient. The previous year marked the hottest on record, and the start of 2024 has already witnessed unprecedented heatwaves along with extreme weather events ranging from unusually severe snowstorms to unseasonal warmth.
Presently, global temperatures are 1.35 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average. Recently, the world has experienced more than 12 consecutive months where the global average exceeded 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level — a concerning trend that indicates a significant step towards the critical 2-degree Celsius threshold, which experts warn could have catastrophic consequences.
At the conclusion of their study, researchers emphasize, "It is evident that climate change will significantly impact global wine production in the coming years. The ability to adapt to these changes will be crucial."
