Devastating Economic Losses Due to Rising Oceans in Europe
Some regions of Europe could see "devastating" economic losses in the coming decades due to the rising oceans, researchers say. A new study found that under the worst-case scenario for emissions and sea level rise, the European Union and United Kingdom could lose 872 billion Euros (about $950 billion) by the end of this century, with many regions within them suffering GDP losses between 10% and 21%.
The study, published Thursday in the journal Scientific Reports, analyzed the economic impacts of sea level rise for 271 European regions. Researchers conducted their analysis based on estimates of high greenhouse gas emissions, which drive global temperature increases, a process that causes sea levels to rise. For the study, they also based their findings on there being no new coastal protection measures beyond 2015, though countries could take action to lessen the impact.
What they found was that the EU and U.K. — both of which are among the 12 biggest contributors to the global trade of goods, according to the EU — would lose a combined 1.26% of their GDP, about $950 billion. But researchers said that even more critical is the loss that could be suffered by smaller locales, especially coastal areas within them.
A recent study has revealed that the potential impacts of climate change on global economies could be devastating. However, the study's author, Tatiana Filatova, emphasized that the purpose of the study is not to scare people.
Filatova explained that the aggregated number of the entire continent misrepresents the actual damage that regional economies will experience. She believes it is important to consider the specific impacts on different areas.
According to the study, some inland regions like Germany, Austria, and Hungary may experience slight economic growth by 2100 due to industry and services relocating from coastal flooding regions. However, there are several "hot spots" along coasts that could suffer major GDP losses.
For example, the northeastern Italian region of Veneto, which includes Venice, could face a GDP loss of 20.84%. Poland's Zachodniopomorskie could see a loss of just over 12%, and Italy's Emilia-Romagna region could experience a loss of 10.16%. In the UK, England's Lincolnshire is considered the most economically at-risk, with an estimated GDP loss of 20.1% by 2100.
The study describes these potential losses as substantial, if not catastrophic. Additionally, the study does not account for the potential impact of Earth's tipping points, which are critical thresholds that, if surpassed, could lead to irreversible consequences.
A recent study conducted by researchers led by Ignasi Cortés Arbués has found that the impact of sea level rise on various economic sectors could be much greater than previously estimated. The study analyzed the effects of sea level rise on sectors such as agriculture, industry, construction, utilities logistics, transport, private services, and public services. The findings showed that while the construction sector would likely benefit from the need for recovery efforts, sectors such as agriculture and public services would likely see significant losses. The study also highlighted the need for increased awareness of these impacts in order to develop effective climate change adaptation strategies.
A better comprehension of the economic impact caused by climate change-related events is provided by Filatova's research. Although the study was conducted in European countries, she emphasized that the analysis should be applied globally. According to Filatova, Europe is comparatively more protected than North America, and it is crucial to replicate similar studies.
