Chris Christie is betting his presidential campaign on New Hampshire, the state that shook up the political landscape when it sided with Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential primary.
Facing difficult odds, the former New Jersey governor and his supporters have adopted a strategy reminiscent of John McCain, the late Arizona senator who won New Hampshire twice during his two presidential primary campaigns and secured the Republican nomination in 2008.
In 2007, at this stage in the race, McCain was polling third in New Hampshire, trailing behind Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani. Christie remembers that his prospects seemed bleak.
"John McCain, in 2008, came to this state. They said his campaign was dead, he lost Iowa, they said there was no chance he could win. He won New Hampshire and became the nominee," Christie told a room of voters in New Hampshire earlier this month. "If I win this primary, I'm gonna be the nominee. If I'm the nominee, I will beat Joe Biden, and then we're gonna go to a whole new era in our politics in this country."
Political Dynamics Shift in New Hampshire
But 15 years since New Hampshire boosted McCain's presidential ambitions, the dynamics in the influential political proving ground have changed. Right now, Trump appears primed to win the state's primary once again.
"Just focusing on New Hampshire, I think, could be a mistake," said Karen Testerman, chair of the Merrimack County GOP who has not endorsed in the primary. "Because I do think that…you have to start looking ahead with the hope of gaining momentum. In a way, if that's all you're focusing on, then it sort of sends a message, well, I really don't know if I can be successful at this."
Recent New Hampshire polls show Christie trailing former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who now has the support of New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. And both are lagging far behind Trump, leading some anti-Trump Republicans to call on Christie to drop out of the race to boost Haley's prospects.
GOP donor Eric Levine, who supported South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott until he exited the presidential race and is now backing Haley, said, "If [Christie] truly wants to stop Trump, he should get out and endorse Haley. Otherwise he's just another self-important gasbag."
It remains uncertain how many of Christie's supporters would shift their allegiance to Haley if he were to drop out of the race. Even if a significant portion were to back Haley, it is unclear whether it would be enough to surpass Trump's popularity.
Christie continues to assert that he has no intentions of withdrawing from the race.
Bobbie Kilberg, a seasoned GOP donor and fundraiser who supports Christie, has not received any calls from Christie's donors suggesting that he should exit the race in order to consolidate support for Haley.
Kilberg, who was also a prominent member of McCain's '08 National Finance Committee, recalls that the late senator believed in the strength of his ideas and was determined to persevere. Similar to McCain, Christie holds the belief that his ideas will ultimately prevail.
Christie has been dedicating most of his time to campaigning in counties that President Biden won in 2020, such as Hillsborough, Rockingham, Merrimack, and to a lesser extent, Cheshire. He has also made two visits to Belknap, a county that Trump won in 2020.
J.P. Marzullo, a delegate for Christie in New Hampshire, noted that McCain's fortunes changed when he started campaigning extensively throughout the state, visiting "every small venue he could find." Marzullo added that, like McCain, Christie is willing to engage with anyone and provide honest answers to tough questions.
In a shrinking pool of Republican presidential candidates, Christie stands out as the only one willing to consistently challenge Trump and acknowledge the extraordinary nature of this election. Despite Trump's attempts to overturn his loss in the 2020 election and incite violence at the U.S. Capitol, he remains the frontrunner for the GOP less than two months before the New Hampshire primary. Trump is currently facing criminal charges related to his efforts to overturn the previous presidential election, among other cases.
Mike DuHaime, a key adviser to Christie, believes that some of the other candidates who are challenging Trump risk alienating voters in New Hampshire because of their lack of "straight talk," which is highly valued by the electorate.
"I don't think you can go from supporting [Trump] all year because you're afraid to offend his voters to attacking him," DuHaime stated.
Christie's decision to focus on the New Hampshire primary, rather than the Iowa caucuses, may work in his favor due to the ability of independent voters to participate in the Republican primary in New Hampshire. Other viable candidates, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Ohio entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, are also attempting to make an impact in Iowa while dividing their time in New Hampshire.
Wayne MacDonald, a Christie ally who served as a vice chair for John McCain's 2000 presidential campaign in New Hampshire, believes that Christie's straightforwardness in answering questions, reminiscent of McCain's "Straight Talk Express" campaign bus, may resonate well with independent voters in the state. "That's something independents appreciate because they are independent for a reason," MacDonald said.
Even while his campaign claims Christie has a path to the nomination beyond New Hampshire, it is clear that the fate of Christie's presidential ambitions hinges on a strong performance in the state's Jan. 23 primary.
Rebecca Weidner, of Rindge, New Hampshire, who voted for McCain, said she values Christie's less divisive politics.
"We need somebody who's going to be more moderate, somebody that people that are going to lean towards the Democratic ticket will see a Republican who is seemingly more willing to meet in the middle and not keep this party divide happening that's handicapped the country," Weidner said.
While McCain's New Hampshire victories were central to his two presidential campaigns, the state also gave Trump his first primary win in 2016, with 35% of the GOP primary vote in a crowded field. Trump's base in the state remains strong, but the field of viable contenders is smaller.
Andrew Provencher, a New Hampshire-based consultant who worked on McCain's 2008 campaign, as well as Jon Huntsman's bid for the White House during the 2012 election cycle, thinks it in fact may be Trump who wins McCain's voters, replacing straight talk with populism.
Christie Struggles to Capture Populist Wave
Political analysts suggest that Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey, is attempting to tap into the populist wave that was once associated with the late Senator John McCain. However, they also note that President Trump has successfully taken hold of that message, making it difficult for Christie to gain traction.
While Trump's version of straight talk may contain falsehoods, his direct and unfiltered communication style resonated with many voters. This poses a challenge for Christie, especially since Trump is not participating in any of the GOP primary debates.
Furthermore, Christie's past alliances with Trump, including endorsing him in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, raise doubts among some voters about his true motivations. This is particularly true for Republican-leaning areas like Belknap County in New Hampshire, where the GOP chair, Gregg Hough, believes Christie's attacks on Trump make the base question his loyalty.
Overall, Christie faces an uphill battle in capturing the populist wave that once defined McCain's appeal. Only time will tell if he can overcome these obstacles and resonate with voters.
Nidia Cavazos contributed to this report
